成果归属作者：

李克文

成果归属机构：

能源学院

作者：

Wang, Lei ; Li, Kewen ; Wen, Dongguang ; Hao, Wenjie ; Jin, Xianpeng ; Jia, Lin

单位：

China Univ Geosci Beijing, Beijing, Peoples R China;Minist Educ, Key Lab Marine Reservoir Evolut & Hydrocarbon Enri, Beijing, Peoples R China;Ctr Hydrogeol & Environm Geol Survey, CGS, Tianjin, Peoples R China

关键词：

NATURAL-GAS CONSUMPTION; POWER-GENERATION; SUNLIGHT WWS; WIND; WATER; SYSTEM; MODEL; COST

摘要：

The study delves into the intricate question of whether China's vast renewable resources, specifically wind, geothermal, and solar energy (WGS), can adequately meet the nation's electricity demands and potentially fulfill its entire energy needs. This study explores China's transition to renewable energy sources, with the main objective being assess the feasibility of meeting China's total energy demand through renewables. Based on the historical data from 2010 to 2020, we forecast the development trend of China's renewable energy and fossil energy demand using gray prediction models. The modeling results indicate that China's entire electricity demand could be met solely by wind, geothermal, and solar energy (WGS) by approximately 2045. Moreover, if the current development trajectory of WGS is upheld, China's total energy demand could be satisfied by WGS as early as 2082. Wind and solar power have significantly driven the expansion of WGS, collectively contributing to nearly three-quarters of its growth. However, the development of geothermal energy has progressed more slowly in comparison. Looking ahead, it is projected that China's total energy demand could potentially be met by a combination of all renewable energy sources - including hydropower, solar, wind, geothermal, and nuclear energy - around 2064. This paper predicts that China's renewable energy consumption will reach 56% by 2050 and 98% by 2060 respectively. These findings provide valuable insights into the feasibility of achieving "zero-carbon" China and the contribution of renewable energy in this process. The forecast results of this paper are helpful in guiding the development of WGS in China, and are of great significance in promoting sustainable development.

基金：

Special Science and Technology Innovation Project of Xiong'an New Area under the task titled "Theoretical and Applied Research on Geothermal Energy Development and Utilization in the Xiong'an Region" [2022XACX0800]

语种：

英文

DOI：

10.1080/15567249.2025.2456060

来源：

ENERGY SOURCES PART B-ECONOMICS PLANNING AND POLICY,2025(1):.

出版日期：

2025-12-31

提交日期：

2025-02-13

引用参考：

Wang, Lei; Li, Kewen; Wen, Dongguang; Hao, Wenjie; Jin, Xianpeng; Jia, Lin. Prediction of energy need and zero-carbon China with renewables[J]. ENERGY SOURCES PART B-ECONOMICS PLANNING AND POLICY,2025(1):.